Editorial by Ahmed Moosa, Editor-in-chief, Dhivehi Observer, 21 December 2008
The upcoming parliamentary election, due to be held in February 2009, is going to be a very exciting one. According to some estimates, we will see a record number of candidates contesting for seats with or without party tickets. To put a figure, some analysts believe that we are going to see more than 400 candidates! It looks like every single party is going to contest individually for the 74 seats representing 21 constituencies, including capital Male'. So a round figure of 400 is in fact an underestimate. It could very well be higher.
However, despite high expectations and demands from grass-root members, the two main parties of the ruling coalition, the Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) and Jumhooree Party (JP) have not been able to come to an agreement whereby both parties will field candidates to secure a majority in the parliament for the coalition rather than for the individual parties.
Days after President Mohamed Nasheed took office, there were numerous signs from both parties that the eventual outcome of the coalition would be to unite and merge the two parties prior to the parliamentary elections. In fact, some ground work was laid to achieve this objective and many members of the coalition were optimistic about a positive outcome. However, few weeks into the administration, it now seems very unlikely that there will be any sort of unity or merger. On the contrary, both parties are now canvassing to identify strong candidates and have announced that they will field candidates for each of the 74 seats of the Parliament.
Of course, this could mean that the main opposition party, the Dhivehi Rayyithunge Party (DRP) formed by the ousted Dictator Gayyoom, could very well come through as the majority party of the first ever democratic parliament in the country. In spite of the fact that the party has been in total disarray since they lost the Presidential Election last October, if the reformists fight among each other, DRP could come through and make life difficult for the MDP-led coalition government.
Below is a projection of how the seats will be distributed amongst the main parties and independent candidates. This is based on the actual shares of the votes achieved by the parties and independents in the most recent elections, especially the first round of the Presidential Election held on 8th October. Additional factors were taken into account to round up the percentages, including the party popularity and the strength of individual candidates in a specific constituency. The electability of serving MPs who have expressed interest or are expected to retain their seat is also taken into account in this projection. Minority parties are not expected to gain any seat in the parliament going it alone.
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| MDP | JP | DRP | HS | IND | Total |
| Male' | 3 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| Addu | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| Haa Dhaalu | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| Haa Alif | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Raa | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Laamu | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Gaafu Dhaalu | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Shaviyani | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Noonu | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Baa | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Lhaviyani | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Kaafu | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Thaa | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Gaafu Alif | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Gnaviyani | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Alifu Alifu | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Alifu Dhaalu | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Vaavu | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Meemu | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Faafu | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Dhaalu | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Total Seats | 16 | 16 | 34 | 6 | 2 | 74 |
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| Total Share | 22% | 22% | 46% | 8% | 3% |
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HS = Hassan Saeed's Party IND=Independents
It is of course highly probable that the general popularity of the DRP may have fallen quite significantly as they are no longer the governing party. Furthermore, they are no longer in a position to use state funds and institutions in their campaign, which could again bring their share of the votes down quite considerably. And, finally, due to the uncertainty surround the leadership of the party, they might not perform as well as they did in recent elections. Nevertheless, it would be wiser to plan for the worst and reformists cannot turn a blind eye to the fact that DRP did gain votes even in the second round of the presidential elections and was just narrowly defeated because of the strength of the united opposition and the determination of the people to bring an end to the 30 years old dictatorship of Gayyoom. A strong campaign such as that is unlikely to be organised unless the reformists go as one group, merged or otherwise.
The question to ask now is how the new government can work for the betterment of the country and deliver its pledges without a majority in the parliament. DRP will be in no mood to allow that to happen or compromise, if they win a majority in the coming Parliamentary Elections.
We have to learn from our own experiences. United we are strong as we showed in the second round of the Presidential Elections. There is still time.
Let us regain our strength and unite as one for the sake of our nation.
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21 comments:
I don't think Gaasingh will get as much.
As long as no party gets a majority I am fine. If it gets distributed equally it would be good for the people. Gaasingh and DRP are from the same seed.
-proniq
This is not likely to happen but as Sappey says, we have to be prepared for the worst and make sure that the old regime does not come into power.
Senior DRP officials confirmed that their target is 20 but confident to win 12 - 15 seats. Currently they are busy raising money. Shaheen Hameed had given Rf.2.5 million and had confirmed additional Rf.1.5 million. They are expecting to win 8 seats from the Hameed's group. Ilyas is still contemplating to run, but have agreed to pay Rf.2.5 million to the party. Universal have agreed to rock the boat now and offered Rf.1.o million to DRP. End of the day it is money for DRP, because if they win less than 10 seats the party is toast.
This is a test of our new democracy. Let everyone run for the Majlis. I think we can reduce the number of possible candidates, if they have to come up with a Rf5000 deposit. Gasim still wants to be the President, and he cannot digest that money alone cannot buy votes in the Maldives any more. It would be prudent if Gasim can join Anni and others and work as a team. gasim cannot change the government by having more candidates in the Majlis. This is just wishful thinking. ADK Nashid must convince Gasim that we are all working for the benefit of the people not for individual goals. If Gasim wants something different he should come out and talk, instead of sending the cops to resolve petty issues.
Sappe has an AGNEDA to write this. He badly needs MDP to merge with gasim party. But MDP wants to treat them normally biut gasim asking for a lot like ebing the next presidential candidate of the ,erged MDP party. Sappe will only become a minister when Gasim wins so he still really wants gasim as president.
I don't think DRP can get that many seats in the parliament this time but we cannot be complacent about it either.
And, whether Sappey has a personal agenda or not, the points he is making are valid and we must make note of it, especially both MDP and JP.
The important thing is to ensure that our young democracy flourishes faster so that public services and the health of our economy changes for the better. If we endup with a minority stake in the parliament, we are in for a lot of trouble.
is this article fair... all these days you sappe, Anni n MDP was telling that Maumoon had the parlaiment majority .. as a result they did what ever they wanted.. with in 30 days of new presidency we can see how Anni is working.. he is repeatedly going against the constitution.. why cant you guys see this.. thats means you guys also wanted the power... was very fake saying that we all working for the betterment of the country.. though this is 21st century .. still we Maldivians donno the meaning of democracy.. Mother n son doesnt talk if they support different party.. is this the meaning of democracy... i don think so... all i know is that is MDP get the parliament majority then again the same thing will repeat .. businessman's will get much richer n poor poeple will become more poor.. n if DRP gets the majority .. they want let MDP do any good for the people.. so for the time being.... i request all the Maldivians to support the individuals who want sell him self for any party n who will n can be a people's person.. i know this sounds crazy .. but thats the best thing we can do right now..
Guy's Listen MDP's Government is about to expire... Vote for Qasim to keep the country safe from DRUGS, PROSTITUTION, CORRUPTION & to be 100% Muslim insha Alla.. we dont give shit about DRP or any other party who gonna win the majority.. its ashame that you guys forgot that gasim is the one who brought MDP as you see it today so wats the fuck are you talking about....sappe be a real journalist.-support JP-
Anni was able to outsmart everyone and he won the public vote. Important thing is for Qasim and others to standby and support this government, for the sake of the country. What matters is that this is a democratic government elected by the people. Who did what for MDP or JP is out of question here. Now its time to build this nation and Qasim and others must not come in the way.
The country must come first not party politics..... thats right.. so we better vote for individuals who can save us from this party politics.. no party should get the majority.... only the individuals who love this country n who wont sell them for any amount of money.
Folks think for a while. please please. The MPs 72 of them will earn Rf66,000 a month for the next 5 years i.e Rf. 285, 120,000.00 (Two hundred and eighty five million, one hundred and twenty thousand) or $22,188,326.84 or US$22 million dollars. This is ridiculous. Most of these guys who are there to protect the constitution or to make or amend it, will have no legal back ground or any experience at all. They can stay at home avoid the parliament meetings and still earn this money. I think we should demand that they at least have a mechanism to monitor their attendance because it will cost us, the tax payers, Rf2500 every time they enter the Majlis.
I feel the comments are colored by the same old politcs as I know the individual cannot win as long as he should be very rich and famous. we had very few of tghis kind of people who could win the a seat in thew parliament. I know the situation changed and there will be no more DRP and JP if Anni want to get more seats. JP will not be that powerful to get as much seat as eaqual to MDP MDP by itself is not that weak you all think of. I know some culculations in the diagram the chances of possiblility to win the seats are not realistic. I belived amoung 46% DRP get in the previous election now it shrinks and the support is as low as 20% therefor there will be no doubt they will not win 34 out of 74. The atoll situation sappy didn't know the power changes and its control if he knows that then he will not have such view on in this issue. My view is if we want to get more seats it will highly be possible if MDP n JP joing the run, and if Gasim want to defeat agin better run alone or if he thinks of the Nation it will be much better him to be the side of MDP and compromize of certain term.
We have just taught the people of Maldives, that democracy is what you can buy for Rf.500 per vote. We cannot elect reasonable people, because honest people in Maldives don't have the kind of money to get elected. For eg. If you want to get 600 votes in Vaavu atoll to get elected, you need Rf500,000 minimum, that is about Rf. 833.33 per vote. If you want to get elected in Addu, you must cough up to over Rf700,000 for a single seat. Soon we will end up with all businessmen in the Majlis, who will only reduce the import tax, extend the lease of tourist resorts, sell our national assets, and gain more excess to the annual budgets. Will employ their relatives, send only their sons to overseas, and blame all of us for introducing drugs to the kids. I think we should reduce the terms of these members. Even in United States congressmen are elected every two years and the senators are elected for 6 years. I think 5 years is just too long for these guys to have a holiday on our account.
Can Anni issue a policy guideline to assure the public that these Majlis members who will make Rf66,000 a month will not get a free pass to import drugs through local customs using their green passports. Can Anni issue such instructions to authorize customs to check the baggage of every Maldivian including himself and pay import duty for the stuff they import using "our money".
I agree with Sappe the fact that all parties must put Nation in front of the Party politics. But Unfortunately Nasheed missed the opportunity to keep Gasim's party along side him. May be Nasheed didn't realize the vitality of keeping Gasim and his party appeased for a united political front agaist the DRP.Nasheed himself must be held responsible breaking he alliance. Fatal mistakes Nasheed made only a month into the Presidency are.
1) Appointing people closely associated with 3rd November 1988 to high profile posts. No matter how much President Nasheed tries to defend Shahid and others associated with November 3rd who are in high profile posts in his government. They are unpopular and even most Maldivians hate them. Nasheed can't juts say if we had today’s judicial system then, things have been different and just ignore common mans feeling. This move of Nasheed led his popularity to plunge.
2. Appointing GoGO Latheef as so called Human rights Ambassador. We have already got a human rights commission and there is Commissioner heading that commission, Mr Saleem. He is more than capable of promoting human rights both within the country and abroad. It is waste of Public money and resource by keeping GoGo Latheef or any one else at State Minister Level under the roof of the Presidents Office as a so called Human rights Ambassador. For his salary alone the state is spending more than 500,000 RF per annum, this figure will go in to Millions if we exactly knew what other benefits he is been offered as Human rights Ambassador. Nasheed should scrap this post and if he has to keep GOGO Latheef in his government he must utilise him in a more sensible and productive way.
3. Appointing Mr Zaki as president's Special Envoy. We must give due respect and credit for Zaki's efforts in steering MDP at very difficult times. But Nahseed must remember Zaki is not a popular figure among the public. He spent 10 years in Gayoom's government. I personally know Zaki, and the ways I know him are not something that I or any other descent citizen would approve him for such a post. Besides what is the country or the government achieving by appointing Zaki as president's special envoy? Absolutely there is no benefit to the nation or to the public. But the state is again paying several thousand's of Rufiyaa, if not millions on the post. Nasheed don't need to have permanent special envoy. President Nasheed is more than capable of travelling abroad and representing the Maldives when needed the Nations Head. If for any reason if he can't travel he can always send a promptly appointed special envoy chosen from among the minsters to represent him at a particular occasion. Let’s not forget our Foreign Minister Dr. Shaheed is an experienced and clever political negotiator and I ask the president, do we need this post of Special Envoy to the president as a permanent post? He must scrap this post and let Zaki take a lead role within MDP rather than in the Government.
4. Nasheed's handling of affairs relating to Home Ministry. Gasim was the Home Minister. But Nasheed seemed very amateurish not to involve the Home minster in affairs relating to the atolls and prison issues. Rather Nasheed played one man show along with State ministers closely associated to MDP in these issues. This was not only foolish but disastrous leading to the resignation of the all important Gasim whose blessing is almost indispensible in keeping the alliance united. But today Nasheeds foolishness has lead his party take over his own head and as a result lead to the dismantling of the coalition.
In summary the first three points are the key reasons why Nasheed's popularity plummeted so rapidly just one month into the presidency while No 4 is the reason the coalition cracked. So as sappe said Nasheed must remember that Party politics come after the Nations interest. He should not ridicule himself due to the influence of some selfish elements in his own MDP. While these are facts we must also commend Nasheed for the sort of freedom of expression he has brought to the Maldives and the efforts he is putting on bringing transparent form of governance.
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ARE THE NUMBERS CREDIBLE? THE POLITICAL LANDSCAPE HAS CHANGED DRAMATICALLY AND D.O. SHOULD CONSIDER DOING ITS INDEPENDENT POLLING IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE NUMBERS ARE NOT REALISTIC AT ALL....
I think we should delay the election by few months. We don't have time to debate the issues and to learn about our representatives. This will give too much advantage to DRP to spend less and get more elected. If we give them 3 months to campaign, they will run out of money. Shaheen Hameed and the gang will need more money to keep their puppets alive. No wonder why they are pushing for early elections.
Campaign started!
Why the country to come first, not party politic?
Let the businessman members and party come first so as to cash in the bucks spent through fat salaries and the many business opportunities they can bag in by influence.
Sappey, don't think of country think of politics. We all know we are SOLD OUT to their whims and calls.
In the name of the country, start the gamble!
Imagine if Gayoom is back. He will undo all what t... Imagine if Gayoom is back. He will undo all what this government has done. He will return to his Palace, increase its budget and start taking the money out of the country so all of them can live in peace, come next time if and ever they are out of power. Imagine Abdulla Riyaaz as Police Commissioner, Adam Zahir as home minister and Holhi Fumey Hameed and his dozen kids in power. Yaameen and Ilyas will be like the kokadikey meedhaas. We just learned that Gayoom had spent Rf22 million more than his budget, as if the government treasury belongs to him. Anni should punish these bast**ds so that it would be a lesson to all politicians including his team that if you ever touch the people's money this is what is going to happen. The finance minister must go, door to door now, to collect the millions, Gayoom gave to his cronies. We want our money back NOW. He should create a force including senior police officers to knock the doors, and collect this money. Cancel all the government lease agreements with these loan holders, so that we don't pay them from one hand and collect from the other hand. If the foreign minister is busy traveling to find money to balance our budget, the Finance minister must be on the street everyday to collect this money from these gangsters. I can remember the days when Ismail Rasheed and Umayr of Dhiraagu use to boast and say all the Maalimee kids contributed to build their 10 story house. Wow! what a contribution? The money came from Theemuge from Adam Naeem in terms of "fat" loans, which you don't even have to pay on time.
IF DRP GETS MAJORITY OF THE PARLIMENT, SAY BYE BYE TO AUDITOR GENERAL AND OTHER INDEPENDANT INSTITUTIONS AND ALSO SAY BYE BYE TO INVESTIGATING RECOVERING STOLEN MONEY OF FPID, AIR MALDIVES, MSNML, STELCO STO SCANDALS.
AND GIVING MAJORITY TO PA AND DRP COALIATION WILL HAVE SAME EFFECTS.
HENCE VOTES SHOULD BE DISTRIBUTED AMONG, MDP, JUMHOORY, HASSAN PARTY, MONAZA, IBRA PARTY ADHALATH IF WE DONT WANT TO GIVE IT SINGLY TO MDP.
NEVE EVER GIVE DRP PA MAJORITY IF YOU WANT CLEAN UP THE PAST 30 YEAR CORRUPTION AND SAVE INDEPENDANT INSTITUTIONS FROM STUPID DUMMIES OF DRP.
Delay these elections until all the laws are in place.I think it is the most prudent thing to do, because we want to know the candidates, their experience, back ground and where they stand on the issues. We also want Rf.5000 deposit to ensure the parties will not nominate Tom Dick and Harry to these posts. Anni should keep Go Go Latheef, Ibrahim Hussein Zaki quiet. They are too trigger happy to jump into conclusions and say what they feel to the media. The government has a spokesperson, so let him talk on behalf of the government. The rest of the ministers must have a spokesperson for their ministries, so we all don't talk to the media at the same time. According to Yameen's sources, if the elecetion is held in June, even's Yaameen's own seat is in question. DRP will win less than 10 seats.
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